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時代周刊:中國(人民幣)能戰勝美元嗎?


Can China Beat the Dollar?
譯者:不詳     發布時間:2014-04-24     超過 0 位網友閱讀

我希望這將是一段很長的路,但是筆者得假設美國的經濟不會很快就崩潰

原文鏈接:http://world.time.com/2013/12/10/chinas-quest-to-take-on-the-u-s-dollar-has-a-long-way-to-go/


Can China Beat the Dollar?
中國(人民幣)能戰勝美元嗎?

The Chinese yuan makes the list of top 10 most traded denominations for the first time, but Beijing's currency reforms are still too tentative

人民幣首次上榜全球10大交易最頻繁貨幣,但北京的貨幣改革仍然停滯不前

By Michael Schuman @MichaelSchumanDec. 10, 20130

Policymakers in Beijing must be feeling warm and fuzzy these days. For years, they have railed against the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade and finance, complaining that it leaves the world at the mercy of erratic Washington politics and questionable economic management.

北京的政策制定者這些天一定感受到了溫暖。多年來,他們一直抱怨美元在國際貿易和金融方面的優勢;抱怨在華盛頓多變的政策下,中國已經和這個世界脫軌了;抱怨(華盛頓)質疑了(中國的)經濟管理權。

China’s leaders can only blame themselves for their heavy reliance on the dollar, but still, from Beijing’s perspective, a world in which China’s own currency — the renminbi — is a more potent force would be a more stable one for the country’s development.

(出現上述抱怨)中國的領導人只能怪自己對美元過度依賴了。但是,從北京的角度來看,在世界上,中國自己的貨幣(人民幣)是保證中國發展更穩定的一個更加強大的力量。

Thus the recent news about how popular the yuan is becoming must be heartening. Earlier this year, a survey from the Bank for International Settlements showed that the renminbi entered the list of top 10 most traded currencies for the first time.

因此,最近的有關人民幣如何受歡迎的新聞,真的很鼓舞人心。今年的早些時候,一項來自國際清算銀行的報告顯示,人民幣首次進入全球十大交易最頻繁貨幣的榜單。

And in early December, a report from financial-services firm SWIFT revealed that the renminbi had overtaken the euro as the second most used currency in global trade finance, with its share jumping from a mere 1.89% in January 2012 to a more respectable 8.66% in October.

并且12月初,一項來自環球銀行金融電信協會SWIFT的報告顯示,人民幣已經取代歐元,成為了第二大常用的國際貿易融資貨幣。(在傳統貿易融資工具——信用證和托收的使用中,采用人民幣作為計價及結算貨幣的比率),已由2012年1月的1.89%,增至今年10月的8.66%,市場占有率排行第二

But Beijing shouldn’t uncork the champagne bottles just yet. The same SWIFT report details just how far the renminbi still has to go to become a truly international currency. Nearly all the trade finance conducted in yuan was undertaken by businesses in China, Hong Kong and Singapore, showing that its use remains extremely limited.

但北京現在就開香檳(慶祝)并不明智。同樣來自SWIFT的一份報告顯示,人民幣想要成為真正的世界貨幣,還有很長的一段路要走。幾乎所有的(有關人民幣的)貿易融資都是由中國企業發起,但交易地點卻是在香港和新加坡,這表明人民幣的作用仍然十分有限。

The dollar is the currency of choice in 81% of the world’s trade finance, according to the SWIFT study. Nor has the renminbi gained much stature among the world’s central bankers, who still prefer the dollar and euro. Central banks in countries as diverse as Chile, Nigeria and Malaysia have reported holding yuan in their portfolios, but its use as a reserve currency is overall infinitesimal.

根據SWIFT,全球81%的貿易融資選擇的貨幣都是美元。在各國中央銀行的銀行家中,沒有多少人喜歡人民幣,他們仍然喜歡美元和歐元。雖然智利、尼日尼亞和馬來西亞的中央銀行已經報道說在其投資組合中持有人民幣,但其(人民幣)在整個儲備貨幣中的作用是微不足道的。

The hurdle facing the renminbi is both simple and not simple. Despite China’s global clout in manufacturing and exports, in international finance it remains a bit player. That’s because the government still imposes strict barriers between China’s financial sector and capital markets and those of the rest of the world. Controls restrict how money flows in and out of the country.

人民幣發展的障礙說簡單就簡單,說難就難。盡管中國在制造和出口上有著很大的全球影響力,但在國際金融中他仍然是一個小角色。這是因為(中國)政府在中國和全球其他國家的金融業和資本市場之間,仍然設置了堅強的壁壘,控制并且限制資金的流入和流出。

Foreign investors cannot freely invest in yuan-denominated assets. The value of the yuan is still heavily influenced by the government, and it is not permitted to trade freely. If global investors, bankers and businessmen are to have the confidence in the yuan necessary to elevate its status, China will have to clear these restrictions away and give more power to the market in determining the worth of the yuan and its flow in and out of the country.

外國投資者不能自由地投資人民幣資產。人民幣的價值在很大程度上仍然受到政府的影響,它(人民幣)不能自由地進行貿易。如果全球的投資者、銀行家和商人有信心提高他們在人民幣中的地位,中國將不得不得清除這些壁壘。并且,在人民幣的價值決定和進出流向市場的過程中,給予(人民幣)更多的權力。

That’s easier said than done. China’s policymakers have been talking up a storm for years about internationalizing the renminbi, but progress has been glacial. Still, over the past few weeks, the promises of reform have become bolder and more specific.

但說起來容易做起來難。中國的政策制定者們一直在討論人民幣怎樣才能國際化,但進展極為緩慢。然而,在過去的幾周里,(人民幣)改革的承諾變得更大膽、更具體了。

In early December, they took some important steps when the People’s Bank of China, the country’s central bank, issued guidelines on experimental capital flows to take place in a new Shanghai free-trade zone (FTZ), launched in September.

12月初,當中國人民銀行(國家的銀行)發出在上海免稅貿易區對資本流動進行管理的指示時(9月推出),他們就采取了一些重要的行動。

New types of bank accounts will be permitted in the FTZ that can be used to move money more freely in and out of the international financial market. Foreign investors operating in the zone will be able to invest without the usual restrictions in the stock market in Shanghai, and Chinese will be better able to invest overseas. Calling the guidelines “bolder than expected,” HSBC economists Qu Hongbin and Ma Xiaoping asserted that they “suggest a marked acceleration in capital-account liberalization.”

在免稅區,能讓資金在國際金融市場進出更加靈活的新型銀行賬戶就被使用。在該區域的外國投資者將在沒有通常限制的上海股市進行投資,并且中國人也能更好地進行海外投資。匯豐銀行的經濟學家屈宏斌馬曉萍稱,“電話指引將比預期更大膽,我們建議加速資本賬戶的自由化。”

Such steps are aimed at experimenting with the sort of open flows of money that could, when implemented on a national scale, help the renminbi become a major international currency. But there are clear limits to how far the central bank is willing to go. There appears to be little concrete movement on allowing the yuan to be valued in a more market-oriented fashion.

這些措施的目的是,在全國范圍實施后,嘗試資金流量是否可以排序,從而使人民幣能夠成為國際貨幣。但是中央銀行(的此項政策)能走多遠還是有限制的。似乎有什么能使人民幣用一個更加市場化的方式進行估值。

It also appears that the zone will be walled off from the rest of China — so the experiments there don’t impact the wider economy. In other words, change will be slow, carefully monitored and confined to a certain group of individuals and institutions.

這似乎也把該區域和中國各地用一堵墻隔開了——這樣的試驗并不影響整體。換句話說,變化是緩慢的,仔細監測是局限在一定的團體和個人中的。

To a certain degree, that makes sense. Throwing open China’s insulated, inexperienced and ill-equipped financial sector to free capital flows and more foreign competition could be disastrous. But at the same time, going too slowly will keep Chinese banks, financial markets — and, yes, the renminbi — stunted and their international sway limited. Figuring out how quickly to proceed will be one of the biggest challenges facing China’s policymakers over the next decade. Until then, the renminbi’s dollar dreams will have to wait.

在某種程度上,這種說法是有道理的。打開中國的“壁壘”后,經驗不足、金融機構資本進行自由流動的裝備落后、更多的外國競爭者(對中國來說)將是致命的。但同時,進展太慢會讓中國的銀行、金融市場和人民幣的國際影響力十分有限。在未來十年,如何快速地(使人民幣國際化)將是中國的政策制定者面臨的最大挑戰。在此之前,人民幣替換美元的夢想將必須等待(人民幣不可能替代美元)。



by78
I hope it'll be a long way to go, but of course, the author assumes the U.S. economy will not collapse anytime soon.

我希望這將是一段很長的路,但是筆者得假設美國的經濟不會很快就崩潰



ChinaLee
While we wait for more reforms, the Chinese currency continues to appreciate against the U.S. dollar.The Chinese currency has appreciated by 36% against the U.S. Dollar in the last eight years.

According to an U.S. Treasury report, annual inflation is higher in China than the United States and this has contributed another 10% effective Chinese Yuan appreciation against the U.S. Dollar.

In total, China's currency Yuan has appreciated 46% (ie. 36% from nominal currency appreciation and 10% from higher inflation) against the U.S. dollar since 2005.

----
Math:

In 2005, one Yuan was worth 12.09 cents. [1 dollar / 8.27 yuans = 12.09 cents per Yuan]

In 2013, one Yuan is worth 16.47 cents. [1 dollar / 6.07 yuans = 16.47 cents per Yuan]

Yuan appreciation = (16.47 cents – 12.09 cents) / 12.09 cents * 100 = 36% appreciation vs. U.S. dollar


當我們在等待(國家能進行)更多的改革時,中國的貨幣將持續升值兌換美元。在過去八年,中國的貨幣兌換美元的利率已經升值了36%。

根據美國財政部的報告,中國每年的通貨膨脹率已經超過了美國,這促成了人民幣兌換美元利率的另外10%的升值。

總體而言,自2005年以來,中國的貨幣已經累計升值了46%(其中36%來源于名義貨幣升值,10%來源于較高的通貨膨脹率)

----
數據:

在2005年,一元人民幣價值12.09美分[1美元/8.27人民幣=每元12.09美分]

在2013年,一元人民幣價值16.47美分[1美元/6.27人民幣=每元16.47美分]

人民幣的升值=(16.47美分-12.09美分)/12.09美分*100=在美元基礎上升值了36%



outspoken
keep on printing more $ and things will be wonderful.

繼續印制更多的美元,事情總是美好的。



duduong
China's desire to see RMB used more widely does not come from selfish ambition; instead, it stems from the US' shameless abuse of its dollar privilege. The Fed has printed $4 trillion out of thin air over the past 5 years; this is equivalent to a theft from everyone who uses dollars for international trades. It was an American treasury secretary who once famously said, "the dollar is our currency, and YOUR problem!" As long as the US administration continues its exploitation of the rest of the world, the victims will naturally want to rid themselves of the shackle that is called the dollar.

中國希望看到人民幣更加廣泛地被使用并非來自于(中國的)私心,而是美國無恥地濫用美元特權造成的。在過去的5年里,美聯儲已經憑空印制了4萬億美元,這相當于對國際貿易中每個使用美元的人實施盜竊。一位美國財政部長曾經說過,“美元是我們的貨幣,你的問題”。只要美國政府繼續在世界其他地區進行掠奪,那么受害者自然想要擺脫這個被稱為“美元”的束縛。
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